Admission probability · UK + Australia · 19 schools

Your honest odds at
every medical school

Move the slider. Watch every school's probability update in real time — not estimates, not vague thresholds, but calibrated likelihood scores based on UCAT percentiles, grade matching, and acceptance rate data.

Schools where you're competitive

Worth applying — possible

Reach schools — difficult

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Best realistic match

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These are honest estimates, not guarantees Admission probability combines UCAT percentile matching, grade alignment, and published acceptance rate data. It cannot account for your specific personal statement quality, interview performance, work experience depth, or how competitive the applicant pool is in any given cycle. A 78% probability means you are a strong candidate — it does not mean you will receive an offer. A 15% probability means it is a genuine stretch — it does not mean applying is pointless. Use these numbers to plan a strategically spread shortlist, not to predict outcomes. UCAT thresholds and acceptance rates change every cycle.

Sources & methodology▼

UCAT thresholds from individual medical school published admissions requirements and UCAT Consortium official test statistics. ucat.ac.uk · ucat.edu.au

Probability model: sigmoid function centred on UCAT threshold, adjusted for grade fit and international applicant penalty. Not endorsed by any medical school or admissions body.

Your honest odds atevery medical school

Your honest odds at
every medical school